Geopolitical Risk + Energy Transition + Climate Change = The Trifecta
BLUF Democracy index scores are a useful tool for gauging geopolitical risk associated with doing business in specific countries. Engagement in friend-shoring democracies rather than adversarial autocracies can reduce geopolitical risk. Why does this matter? As energy companies grapple with new geopolitical risks, mitigation strategies can be challenging. Leveraging…
BLUF Friend-shoring countries identified in the National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS) are 97% democratic and represent 48% of world democracies, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) 2023 Democracy Index. The friend-shoring list did not include any authoritarian regimes. Why does this matter? Friend-shoring reduces geopolitical risk for energy…
BLUF Concepts introduced and amplified in the National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS) offer helpful frameworks for energy companies to reduce geopolitical risk. Adversarial capital, production diplomacy and friend-shoring each reflect a relevant attribute of the current global geopolitical situation. Why does this matter? The NDIS repeatedly illuminated how and why…
BLUF A coalition of countries must cooperate to enforce international law and protect at-risk global shipping. Examples already exist to do this, which may be leveraged if needed in a contested South China Sea or an ice-free Arctic. Members and observers of the Arctic Council and Barents Euro-Arctic Council…
BLUF Usually, we talk about ships transiting through the Panama Canal. But a robust ecosystem of multimodal transshipment options explodes from the area around the canal, making this 50-mile (80 km) strip of land even more strategically important than many realize. The Panama Neutrality Treaty helps maintain the status quo.…
BLUF Panama Canal’s port concessionaire is 80% owned by a Hong Kong company with ties to the PRC for decades. Law #5 gives the concessionaire significant authority that puts the port’s neutrality at risk. The geopolitical risk presented by PRC’s ability to exert significant influence over Panama Canal operations…
BLUF Let me be clear. This post does not advocate increased shipping in the Arctic region or minimize the myriad geopolitical challenges involved. It explores an under-represented advantage of Arctic shipping routes – avoidance of some geographic chokepoints that are geopolitical hot spots. Houthi attacks on maritime vessels in…
BLUF If you don’t understand what geopolitical risk means, allow Putin’s actions against commercial companies and nationalized industries to teach you. Since invading Ukraine in February 2022, Putin has done things “you just can’t do” and yet, he acted largely with impunity. Part of doing business internationally is overcoming…
BLUF Challenging the rules-based international order is a key feature of strategic competition. PRC’s new map shows an example of Chairman Xi’s efforts to define the world to his advantage, despite international norms. The map’s significance lies in the leader’s mindset, not the unoriginal claims. Like “build it and…
